Climate Concern Spikes Amid Slow Political Progress

The UN Climate Change Conference (SB60), held this month in Bonn, Germany, saw an unprecedented surge in participation with over 8,600 registered participants according to the UNFCCC’s numbers.

In the context of this record-breaking attendance, the conference closed with a lack of substantial agreement among countries on critical issues, highlighting the disconnect between the global concern for the climate crisis and the intergovernmental response.

A new global survey by UNDP and Oxford University underscores this concern. The survey, which polled 75,000 people from 77 countries, found that 80% of respondents want their governments to increase efforts to combat global warming. This demand for stronger climate action is particularly pronounced in poorer countries, with 89% in favor, compared to 76% in wealthy G20 nations. Major emitters like China and the United States also saw a majority of respondents in favor of increased climate action, with 73% and 66% respectively supporting stronger measures​.

Additionally, the survey revealed that concerns about climate change are rising, with 56% of respondents thinking about climate change at least once a week, and over half (53%) reporting increased anxiety about the climate compared to the previous year. Countries like Fiji, Afghanistan, and Turkey reported the highest increases in climate anxiety, while Saudi Arabia and Russia showed the lowest increases.

Back to the quiet German city by the Rhine, the UN Climate Conference closed on 13 June with a lack of substantial agreement among countries on critical issues like reducing emissions or increasing climate finance, highlighting the disconnect between the global concern for the climate crisis and the intergovernmental response.

And this happened under the eyes of a record-high number of delegates. The graphic below shows the increase in the number of participants at the Bonn conference in the last five years (in 2020 the conference could not take place due to the COVID pandemic).

The SBs (in reference to the UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Bodies meeting at these conferences) take place every year: in May or June to prepare decisions for the annual Conference of the Parties (COP), the much bigger annual climate summit taking place in November or December every year since 1995.

While the SBs take place in Bonn (the headquarter city of the UN Climate Change secretariat), COPs take place in a host country on a regional rotation basis.

Despite being highly technical meetings, the SBs are reaching the dimension of a “mini” COP of the pre-Paris era, with more country delegates, observers from NGOs, subnationals, companies and press attending.

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, with climate impacts multiplying everywhere and science loudly calling for urgent action, more and more people around the world are concerned with the lack of political progress and the failure to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

This graphic shows the steep increase in participation at the annual COPs.

The Bonn Conference was marked by a lack of progress, particularly on the Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme (MWP) whose mandate is to "urgently scale up mitigation ambition and implementation in this critical decade in a manner that complements the global stocktake", namely how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Paris Agreement and limit global average temperature increase under 2 degrees Celsius and as close as possible to 1.5 degrees, a limit that would save millions of lives and livelihoods.

Many countries expressed frustration at the closing session over the failure to advance discussions on this crucial program designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the multilateral agreement at COP28 in Dubai in November to “transition away” from fossil fuels in energy systems, the Bonn meeting did not tackle this issue. “Mitigation must not be taboo as a topic,” said Switzerland’s negotiator, as Climate Home News reports.

Even the UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell described the progress achieved in Bonn as “modest”, warning of "a very steep mountain to climb" to achieve ambitious outcomes at the upcoming COP29 in Azerbaijan. The lack of consensus on the Mitigation Work programme was seen as a major setback, with developed and developing countries blaming each other for the impasse. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), represented by Samoa’s lead negotiator Anne Rasmussen, emphasized the critical nature of these failures, stating that the world cannot afford such setbacks in the fight against climate change​.

Another significant issue at SB60 was the failure to make meaningful progress on climate finance. Developing nations, particularly those from Africa and the Arab groups, expressed deep dissatisfaction over the lack of clear commitments from developed countries regarding the post-2025 climate finance goal. The urgency of addressing climate finance is critical to support countries most vulnerable to climate impacts, such as those in South Asia, which are currently facing severe weather extremes including cyclones, floods, and heatwaves.

Governments are locked in a fierce debate over the magnitude of funds required, with estimates ranging from $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion annually. The fundamental questions of who pays and what sources of funding should be considered further complicate the negotiations. Despite the urgency, progress on this front seems elusive, as envoys engage in a familiar blame game while skirting the fundamental issues.

Moreover, discussions on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and the Loss and Damage Fund remained stalled, with countries unable to move beyond basic acknowledgements. This stagnation hampers the ability of frontline nations to prepare for and recover from climate-induced disasters effectively.

The much-touted fossil fuel phaseout, hailed as a breakthrough at COP28, became a mere whisper in Bonn. Major oil-producing nations seemed intent on letting the issue drift, blocking efforts to initiate a dialogue and suggesting that the responsibility lies with individual countries. This lack of collective will raises doubts about the commitment to addressing this pressing challenge.

As the incoming COP29 Presidency, Azerbaijan faces scrutiny over its commitment and competence in steering the negotiations toward a successful outcome. While the country has proposed initiatives like a “North-South Fund” and “Green Energy Corridors,” questions linger about their efficacy and the overall plan of action. Furthermore, concerns mount over Azerbaijan’s ability to protect civil society and prevent the talks from being co-opted by the fossil fuel sector.

Amidst the slow progress in political negotiations, there is mounting pressure for countries to submit more ambitious climate plans or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by the next COP. The official deadline for these submissions is February 10, 2025, but there is a strong push for early submissions to demonstrate commitment and urgency in the global fight against climate change​.

Current NDCs are not sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. The latest research indicates that current commitments could lead to a temperature increase of 2.5-2.9°C. Therefore, the next set of NDCs must be ambitious enough to bridge this gap and align short-term actions with long-term goals.

Earlier this month, UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasised the urgency of this moment. "We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell, and the truth is we have control of the wheel. Pulling back from the brink “is still just about possible”, he continued. Still, only if we fight harder. It all depends on decisions taken by political leaders during this decade and “especially in the next 18 months”, he said.

Another blunt contrast between the urgency of the crisis and the action taken by governments to address it, is the fact that countries are not sufficiently funding the UNFCCC secretariat which is under high pressure to deliver on more and more mandates and larger conferences under strong budgetary constraints due to some Parties not fulfilling their due contributions. This has led to the absence of virtual participation and webcast for part of the meetings and events at the SBs. The current budgetary situation underscores the need for all Parties to fulfil their financial obligations and also for non-Party actors to help fund critical activities like communications and raising awareness.

As the world looks ahead to COP29, it is clear that significant challenges remain. The Bonn talks, while increasing transparency on climate actions and establishing rules for a new global carbon market, left many critical issues unresolved. Simon Stiell's closing remarks at SB60 highlighted the need for accelerated efforts and the importance of upholding scientific guidance in climate negotiations.

With the climate crisis intensifying and people dying around the world—just read about the dramatic heatwaves in Saudi Arabia, India, the United States and in the Mediterranean—the international community must urgently find common ground to advance with determination on key issues such as mitigation, adaptation, and finance. Only through fast collective action and mutual trust can we hope to tackle the climate emergency, avoid death, loss and suffering, and improve people’s lives.

In conclusion, while the record-breaking participation at climate conferences reflects a growing global concern and scrutiny for climate action, it also underscores the urgent need for more effective negotiations and resolutions. As we move towards COP29, it is imperative for the global community to move from words to action.